Here is Dr.Manfred Gerstenfeld’s latest article on the Israeli elections, published here with the author’s consent.
Dozens of Arrests are Main Event of the Election Week
Manfred Gerstenfeld
Last Wednesday, the police detained for questioning dozens of public officials on suspicions of participation in a criminal network of money laundering, bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. The police claim that Deputy Interior Minister Faina Kirschenbaun of Israel Beitenu (“Israel is our Home”) played a leading role in this network. After questioning, she was released from custody because of her parliamentary immunity. Among those arrested was Stas Meseznikov, of the same party, who was the former Minister of Tourism.1
Likud’s comptroller, Shai Galili, disqualified Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from running for the party leadership. Galili said that there are indications that Netanyahu improperly used party resources in his run for the leadership. The Likud’s election committee said that Galili did not have the authority to disqualify Netanyahu, nor did he have a valid reason for doing so. Netanyahu is likely to appeal Galili’s decision.2
At the beginning of the week, US Secretary of State John Kerry told EU ambassadors in Washington that the United States would not allow passage of any UN Security Council resolutions on the Middle East. Tzipi Livni, leader of Hatnuah (“The Movement”), who had met with Kerry, proudly announced that she had succeeded in protecting Israel’s vital interests in the Security Council. Defense minister Moshe Yaalon (Likud) reacted, “What Livni did in her appeal to the Americans is inherently wrong, because you do not involve foreign officials in Israeli political matters.” He added that, “We all realize that if Tzipi Livni and ‘Bugie’ Herzog were in power, long ago we would have had Hamastan in Judea and Samaria.” 3
The accusations of foreign interference within the Israeli elections process emerge during every election. Kerry had been careful to say that Washington would not interfere in the Israeli elections.4 That may be true to a certain extent, but the recent declaration of US Vice President Joe Biden, for example saying that there is no daylight at all between Israel’s security and the US5 can definitely be seen as support for Netanyahu. US President Barack Obama signing into law the bill which made Israel an official strategic partner of the United States, a classification not held by any other nation6, can be perceived as support for Netanyahu as well.
The week was also marred by violence. When former Shas leader, Eli Yishai, announced the establishment of his new party, called Ha’am Itanu (“The People are With Us”), the meeting was disrupted by Shas activists, who, after a short scuffle, were expelled by the security guards.7 Later on, the establishment of a branch of Yishai’s movement in Be’ersheva had to be cancelled because the organizer reneged on his commitment. He was pressured to do so by certain rabbis.8 The Shas ultra-Orthodox party from which Yishai split is led by Aryeh Deri, who has a criminal record. Deri was reinstated as the party’s head instead of Yishai by the spiritual leader of the party, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, who then passed away in 2013.
The residual Shas party may well join Labor’s Herzog if he can form a government. The ultra-Orthodox parties were not part of the outgoing Netanyahu government, which cut back on the government subsidies provided to ultra-Orthodox institutions. Yishai seems to be in the right-of-center camp. He had hoped that the Tekuma faction (“National Union”) of Habayit Hayehudi (“The Jewish Home”) would split off and join his party, but that has not happened, even if some prominent Tekuma rabbis now support Yishai. The fact that Habayit Hayehudi under the leadership of Naftali Bennet will be united makes it likely that it will be the third largest party in the elections.
The tensions in the other ultra-Orthodox party, United Torah Judaism, were less pronounced. Moshe Gafni, the head of its Degel Hatorah (“Torah Flag”) faction, said that he would be willing to join a left-wing Hertzog government.9 This created some turmoil in the party, which is now afraid of losing some right-wing voters.
Out of the 6 Hatnuah MKs, only Livni and Amir Peretz, formerly a Labor party leader, will stand in the next elections. MK General Eliezer Stern has left the party, saying he disagreed with Livni’s policies and that she had poorly defended the party’s interests in her merger with Labor, in order to obtain a possible rotation in the role of prime minister for herself. The other three MKs of the party, David Tsur, Amram Mitzna, and Meir Sheetrit, all decided that they would not run again.10
Moshe Kahlon introduced the first candidate of his new party, Koolanu (“All of Us”), former Israeli Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren. Another candidate of the party is social economy expert Eli Alaloof. Kahlon said, “The coming election will not be about the right and the left….the coming elections are about closing gaps, about providing equal opportunities, about leadership, vision, and the courage to create necessary and needed changes.”11
A Panels Research Poll for The Jerusalem Post and Maariv predicted 24 seats for Labor, 23 for Likud and 17 for Bayit Jehudi. It saw a dramatic fall for Israel Beiteinu from the present 13 seats down to 5 seats. The Rafi Smith Institute poll for the Reshet Bet radio station found, however, that Israel Beiteinu would get 8 seats.12
In order not to concentrate solely on the issue of how many Knesset seats parties may obtain, opinion polls often ask other questions. A Channel 10 poll asked who would best deal with the security threats to Israel; 30% of those polled said Netanyahu, 22% preferred Israel Beitenu leader Avigdor Lieberman, and 21% chose Herzog.13
Those interviewed by Panels Research were also asked whether they thought that the timing of the police investigation was of a political nature. Forty-four percent said yes, and 40% said no. Forty percent of the respondents said that the past week’s report about the widespread poverty in Israel would influence their vote. Fourteen percent said that the news about corruption would influence their vote. Asked whether or not they believe there would soon be another escalation in the Gaza strip, 64% said yes, and 16 % said no.14
Footnotes:
1 Ben Hartman, “Dozens of Officials Arrested in Massive Corruption Probe,” The Jerusalem Post, 25 December 2014.
2 “Likud Comptroller Bars PM from Leadership Race,” The Jerusalem Post, 25 December 2014.
3 Lidar Gravé-Lazi, “Ya’alon: If Herzog and Livni will lead Israel, Hamastan will be established in Judea and Samaria,” The Jerusalem Post, 21 December 2014
4 Barak Ravid, “Kerry: U.S. will not interfere in Israeli election,” Haaretz, 7 December 2014.
5 Herb Keinon, “Biden: No daylight between Israel and US on security,” The Jerusalem Post, 6 December 2014.
6 Michael Wilner, “Elevating US-Israel Alliance, Obama Hails his Role,” The Jerusalem Post, 21 December 2014.
7“Ex-Shas MK Yishai called ‘traitor’ as he unveils new party,” The Times of Israel, 15 December 2014.
8 Chaim Lev, “Why Was Eli Yishai’s First Show of Force Cancelled?” Israel National News, 23 December 2014.
9 Yair Ettinger, “Haredi party doesn’t rule out joining Labor coalition,” Haaretz, 8 December 2014.
10 Gil Hoffman, “Sheetrit to Follow Mitzna in Retiring from Politics,” The Jerusalem Post, 25 December 20145.
11 Gil Hoffman and Niv Elis, “Michael Oren to Run with Koolanu,” The Jerusalem Post, 25 December 2014.
12 Yoni Kempinski, Ari Yashar, “Poll: Yisrael Beytenu Corruption Woes, 17% Undecided,” Israel National News, 27 December 2014.
13 Shlomo Pyotrkovsky, “Ari Yashar, Poll Gives Labor 22, Likud 21, but Netanyahu Favored Over Herzog,” Israel National News, 23 December 2014.
14 Gil Hoffman, “Yisrael Beytenu may not make the cut, ‘Post’ poll finds,” The Jerusalem Post, 26 December 2014.
