Please maintain or increase the edge.
UKIP SUPPORT SOARS TO 25 PERCENT FOLLOWING CLACTON WIN
UKIP have soared in the opinion polls following their win in the Clacton by-election on Thursday. The latest poll from Survation puts the party on 25 percent, which would give them 128 seats at next year’s general election if the votes are spread evenly across the country.
They now lag just six points behind the Conservatives and Labour, who are both on 31 percent and are once again a long distance ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 11 percent. Experts predict this would give a general election result of Labour 253 MPs, Conservatives 187, UKIP 128, Lib Dems 11, and other parties 71.
Proffessor John Curtice from Strathclyde University, told the Mail on Sunday: “If UKIP are to turn votes into Commons seats in Britain’s first-past-the-post system, they need to build up bastions of local strength. Today’s poll suggests they may have begun to do that.
“The 25 percent level represents a 22-point increase on the 3 percent the party won in 2010. If that increase were to occur evenly in every constituency, they could still fail to pick up a single seat.
“But today’s poll suggests UKIP’s support has increased much more in the south of England outside London than it has elsewhere in the UK – by a staggering 34 points. If that level was recorded throughout the South, Ukip could win as many as 128 seats, with no less than 102 of them coming from the Conservatives, whose vote in the region is down 14 points.
“In that event, Cameron would be left with just 187 seats, almost as weak a position as the Conservatives were in after their calamitous defeat in 1997. Mr Farage would achieve his ambition of holding the balance of power at Westminster. Any poll estimate of what is going on in an individual region is inevitably not as robust as that for the country as a whole.