It never was a ”Spring” to begin with.
The League of Nations’ Mandates for the ME and elsewhere, was the first ever ”democracy project”, the only state in the ME region to take it seriously and produce a western style democracy, were the Jews, because they had (still do) a working civil society while the Arabs did not, and still don’t. Islam is not conducive to a free and democratic (pluralistic) society, and it can’t be imposed, so a heavy handed form of government is the only thing that can keep that uncivil society in check.
It’s also the reason as to why these uncivil societies are doomed to be a 3rd world (non-developing) states, they have to be under a heavy handed fist to keep them in line. History has proven that top down orchestrated societies are not dynamic, but moribund, hence their need to steal the wealth of neighboring states. The only reason why Islam had its ”golden period(s)”, is that it was living off the booty and technical advances of those they had conquered.
These 7th century Muslim states in our modern period are in fact living on borrowed time, they have nothing to offer other than the bounty (oil) provided by the West, and one day, will cease to be of influence. It’s one of the reasons why they look with glee at the West’s opening of doors to them. Our task is to resist it, change course, and root out that which has managed to take hold in our own societies, and prepare for the eventual outcome of a Muslim world implosion and their slipping into insignificance.
After the Arab Spring: The Return of the Generals
After the uprisings of 2011, the Arab world seemed to be moving towards democracy, but the recent resurgence of strongmen have illustrated just how deep certain divides still are — and how desperate people are for stability.
In the tense build-up to the 2011 uprisings, Arabs seemed to be turning away from dictatorship. Poll after poll showed that more Egyptians, Jordanians and Moroccans believed democracy was the best form of government than did Americans or, say, Poles. But “democracy” in the abstract could mean just about anything as long as it was positive. It was one thing to believe in democracy and quite another to practice it.
In Egypt, the loss of faith in not just democracy, but in the very notion of politics, was particularly striking. A not insignificant number of Egyptians backed the military coup of July 3, 2013, and then turned away from — or, worse, embraced — the mass killing of their countrymen on August 14, 2013. More than 600 were killed in mere hours, as security forces moved to disperse Muslim Brotherhood supporters from two protest camps in Cairo. This happened exactly a year ago — and will remain a dark blot on the country’s history. It, in a sense, is what the Arab Spring had managed to unleash — not just chaos but something darker.
Before they began to falter, the region’s autocrats, whether in Tunisia, Syria or Yemen, were fond of reminding Westerners that despite their brutality — or perhaps because of it — they were the ones keeping the peace and ensuring stability. As Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said in a televised address just 10 days before he was ousted, “The events of the last few days require us all as a people and as a leadership to choose between chaos and stability.” In a sense, he and his fellow autocrats were right — there was a tradeoff. These, after all, were weak states, divided by religion, ideology, sect and clan.