Barry Rubin Egypt



While the MB might appear to have suffered a minor loss in their presidential bid, due to ineptness (running a couple of candidates not eligible) and letting their guard down (dropping their fake mask of moderation), the main point is that the West that has to be made aware that any such talk of ”islamist moderation” is a ruse, a chimera, as much as it is in Hamastan Gaza or in Heznazi Lebanon.

NOTE: There still remains many factors yet to be played out, or as we say here in Finland, ”the sweet rolls are still in the oven”, but Rubin offers some very valid points worth considering. Presently, he (Barry Rubin) seems to be the only one able enough to consistently present them.

Islamists Face Setback in Egyptian Presidential Election

Barry Rubin: While the Brotherhood claims victory, the election was actually a defeat—at least temporary and possibly less important than it seems—for the Brotherhood and Islamism. Here’s why.

The Islamist Camp

Note that only about 44 percent of voters backed an Islamist candidate, compared to 75 percent in the parliamentary election, while only about 25 percent voted for the Muslim Brotherhood compared to about 47 percent in the parliamentary vote. Why?

To begin with, the two top Islamist candidates were removed by the election commission, the Brotherhood’s first choice and the only Salafist candidate. Presumably, many voters stayed home or opted for their second choice party. The question is whether those who crossed the line and voted for a non-Islamist will return to the Brotherhood in the second round.

A key question is the 25 percent who backed a Salafist in the parliamentary election but could not do so in this one. Did they stay home, or vote for the Brotherhood or the “moderate Islamist,” or for a secular party? And again, will most of them back the Brotherhood or a Mubarak era politician?

More here.

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