Dr. Manfred Gerstenfeld’s weekly article on the Israeli election campaign.

ISRAELI ELECTIONS: MOST CANDIDATES ANNOUNCED

Manfred Gerstenfeld

Most of the candidates for the elections to the 20^th Knesset are now known. The Labor primaries, held on Tuesday, January 13, resulted in a list of candidates with predominantly social and economic interests. MK Shelly Yachimovich came out first, which means that she holds the third slot, after Yitzchak Herzog and Tzipi Livni. Yachimovich is the previous Labor party leader, and during her term emphasized domestic issues over foreign affairs.

The next two slots were won by MK Stav Shaffir and MK Itzik Shmuli, who both led the 2011 socioeconomic protests. The Labor list is characterized by a large number of women representatives, 6 among the first 20 candidates, as against 2 women in the Likud. One new candidate in a realistic position is the Arab broadcaster Zoher Bahalul, who will further enlarge the already sizable contingent of former journalists in the Knesset. 58.9% of the 48,904 eligible Labor members voted.¹

It was also announced that the joint list of Labor and Hatenua will operate under the name of the Zionist Camp.² Yet several candidates on this list have been known to make anti-Zionist remarks. Saffir is quoted as saying that the national Israeli anthem, Hatikva, is a racist song. MK Merav Michaeli has said that children should not be sent to the army. Bahalul has stated that “our Palestinian identity is stronger than our Israeli identity.” Prof. Yossi Yonah has said that that Zionism does not express who he is.³ While the Zionist Camp will claim itself as a center party, the right-of-center parties will present it as being close to the extreme left.

On Thursday, 15 January, Habayit Hayehudi held its primaries. Four seats within the first 20 were allocated to the Tekuma faction. The candidates for these seats were already previously appointed. MK Ayelet Shaked was elected to the third slot on the party’s list.⁴

Three Israeli ministers, who are also party leaders, participated in the large demonstration in Paris in memory of those who were recently murdered by Muslim terrorists. Netanyahu, Bennett, and Lieberman have all since returned to Israel. The Paris killings are unlikely to influence the outcome of the elections, even though media reports claim that the trip to Paris was for reasons related to the elections.

Deputy Minister of the Interior, MK Faina Kirschenbaum of Yisrael Beitenu, announced her resignation from politics. She is currently under investigation for corruption.⁵ She is the fourth MK of the party who is leaving the Knesset. Agriculture minister MK Yair is leaving the party. He said that there are changes in the party’s diplomatic platform, with which he has difficulties identifying.⁶

Two weeks after his resignation as chairman of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, former MK Aryeh Deri is returning to his position. Deri said that the party’s Council of Torah Sages had instructed him not to quit.⁷

Most polls show that the Ha’am Itanu party, led by former Shas leader Eli Yishai, is quite close to the threshold, yet still below it. This seemingly marginal issue could have great significance. If Yishai’s party succeeds in joining the Knesset, the right-of-center camp would probably gain a total of well over 40 seats, which would be a good start to forming the next government. Such a right-of-center government would be based mainly on the Likud and the HaBayit Hayehudi parties.

In the Likud camp, problems regarding the recount of votes continue. Former minister Avi Dichter, who was initially in the 20^th place, has been demoted in favor of MK Tzipi Hotovely. Dichter is likely to appeal this result and ask for another recount.⁸

A TNS poll carried out for the Walla portal found that two of the center parties, Yesh Atid, headed by MK Yair Lapid, and the newcomer Koolanu, headed by Moshe Kahlon, are largely competing for the same voters on fairly similar platforms.

Yesh Atid would probably prefer Herzog as Prime Minister after Lapid’s many collisions with Netanyahu over the past two years. In the meantime, MK Elazar Stern of Hatenua has announced that he will be joining Yesh Atid.⁹

Kahlon would probably be willing to go with either Netanyahu or Herzog as Prime Minister.¹⁰ Koolanu also presented its list this week. The names of its main candidates had already been announced, but now their seniority is also known. After party leader Moshe Kahlon, Major General (Res.) Yoav Galant is in second place, followed by Israeli Broadcast Authority manager Tsega Melaku, who is of Ethiopian origin. Former Israeli ambassador to the United States, Michael Oren, is in fourth place.¹¹

Polls at the end of the week showed a widening lead of the Zionist Camp over the Likud. A Panels Research poll for The Jerusalem Post and Maariv found that the Zionist Camp would get 25 seats, against 22 seats for the Likud. Forty four percent of the respondents said that the Zionist Camp represented their views on socioeconomic issues, but only 28 % said it represented them on diplomatic and security issues.¹² Which of these two subjects will be the key issue of the upcoming elections may thus greatly influence the political success of these parties.

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