Stormy Weather Puts Elections in Second Place
Manfred Gerstenfeld
The stormy weather and the substantial preparations that were made to avoid a repeat of last year’s power outages and other such difficulties caused election activities to progress slowly over the past week. It turned out that there had been mistakes made tallying the votes of the Likud primaries, and a recount caused places to be changed among some of the candidates. In particular, MK Tzachi Hanegbi, who is the current Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, lost some places within the Likud list, but still holds a spot where he is almost sure to be elected.1
Netanyahu announced in a speech that if he were to be elected, he would try to implement reforms so that the largest of the elected parties would automatically have the right to form the government. In the past, either Likud and/or Labor had large number of parliamentarians.2 According to the polls, the upcoming Knesset will have many relatively small parties, resulting in a government that most probably will consist of five or six parties, and the next Prime Minister’s party will likely be unable to provide a majority of the ministers. This would make governing difficult.
The Labor-Hatnuah coalition has been using the name “The Zionist Camp”. However, it turned out that in their Arabic-language advertising, they dropped the expression “Zionist Camp”. They then came under severe criticism of several political figures from Habayit Hayehudi.3
MK Moshe Feiglin, who failed to obtain a realistic spot in the Likud primaries, left the party and announced that he would start his own party.4 It is not clear whether this party will participate in the upcoming elections.
Avraham Burg, a former Labor MK, Knesset speaker and the former chairman of the Jewish Agency, joined the Arab-Jewish communist party, Hadash. In 2004, Burg failed to become Labor party chairman and since has been critical of Zionism.5
Several well-known MKs announced that they will not seek re-election. These include Public Security Minister Yitzhak Aharonovitch6 and MK David Rotem7 of Israel Beitenu, and MK Nitzan Horowitz of Meretz.8
Former Minister Kahlon’s new Koolanu party announced additional candidates. One of these is Major General (ret.) Yoav Galant, the former head of the Southern Command. Others are Rachel Azaria, the deputy mayor of Jerusalem, and the educator Yifat Sassa-Biton.9
A variety of polls were held over the past week. They all show that the Likud and Labor-Hatnuah lists are neck and neck regarding the projected number of Knesset seats. A Haaretz poll, conducted by the Dialog Institute and published on January 7th, put Labor-Hatnuah at 23 seats and Likud at 22. Habayit Hayehudi would receive 16, Yesh Atid 12, and Koolanu would receive 9 seats. Israel Beitenu, with several of its prominent members involved in a corruption scandal, is down to 6 seats according to the poll, as against the 13 that they hold in the present Knesset. Shas, whose chairperson Arye Deri left the Knesset, is down to 5 seats, as against the 11 it currently holds.
There are ongoing rumors that the three Arab parties will appear together on a united list. If that is not the case, the polls show that the United Arab List party will receive 5 seats, as will Hadash, while the Balad party is unlikely to pass the election threshold of 3.25%.
The same poll asked the public who they see as more suitable for the role of Prime Minister: 46% preferred Likud’s Netanyahu, while 30% preferred Labor party leader Yitzchak Herzog.
The poll also asked a number of other questions. One was who would be more suitable to deal with the political/diplomatic situation; Netanyahu obtained 48% and Herzog 33%. Another question asked who would be more suitable to deal with the security situation; Netanyahu received 55% and Herzog 25%. As to who would be more suitable to deal with the economic situation, both candidates got 38%. The poll also asked whether voters were satisfied with the party for which they had voted in the previous elections. On the average, 36% of the voters were dissatisfied. The main dissatisfaction concerned parties such as Yesh Atid, Shas, Likud-Beitenu, and Balad. Of those who voted for these parties, about half the voters were dissatisfied. Among Labor voters, 26% were dissatisfied, 21% of Habayit Hayehudi voters were dissatisfied, and only 5% were dissatisfied with United Torah Judaism.10
The TNS Teleseker poll for Maariv, published on January 9, put the Likud, with 25 seats, ahead of Labor-Hatnuah with 24. It gave Yesh Atid only 9 seats. The poll also asked respondents who was to blame for the housing crisis; 37% answered Netanyahu, 24% replied Lapid, and 14% held former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert responsible for the crisis.11
On Tuesday, January 13, the Labor primaries will be held. Labor has 49,000 members who are eligible to vote in the primaries. For purposes of comparison: Likud has the double the number of eligible voters.
Footnotes:
1 Gil Hoffman, “Likud to unveil campaign amid recount mess”, The Jerusalem Post, 4 January 2015.
2 “Electoral Reform”, The Jerusalem Post, 6 January 2015.
3 Lahav Harkov, “No ‘Zionism’ in Labor-Hatnua Arabic ads”, The Jerusalem Post, 7 January 2015.
4 “Moshe Feiglin Leaving Likud”, The Jerusalem Post, 5 January 2015.
5 “Former Knesset speaker Burg joins far-left Jewish-Arab party Hadash”, The Jerusalem Post, 3 January 2015.
6 “Israel election updates/Aharonovitch retiring from politics,” Haaretz, 9 January2014.
7 Lahav Harkov, “Yisrael Beytenu MK Rotem to quit politics”, The Jerusalem Post, 6 January 2015.
8 Ilan Lior, “Openly gay lawmaker decides to quit politics”, Haaretz, 31 December 2014.
9 Lahav Harkov, Niv Elis “Kahlon picks Galant for security role in Koolanu,’ Jerusalem Post 9 January 2015.
10 Yossi Verter, “Seker ‘Haaretz’: Lapid Mitoshesh, Kahlon Ni’hlash Be’ekviyut”, Haaretz, 7 January 2015 [Hebrew].
11 Gil Hoffman, “Likud receives boost in polls from party primary,” The Jerusalem Post 9 January 2015.
