Dr.Daniel Pipes: Feb. 1, 2009 update: The Tundra Tabloid website points out a 2008 English-language publication of the Finnish Ministry of Defence, Russia of Challenges, described as the product of an effort to draw “an all-round picture of the factors affecting stability in Russia as well as possible destabilizing developments which could alter the security situation close to the Finnish borders.”
One and a half pages (on pp. 49-50) are dedicated to the issue of “Islam in Russia.” The section begins with the assertion that “Islam and Muslims in Russia pose a serious challenge to Russia’s internal stability and domestic policy.”
The report breaks no demographic ground (it notes predictions cited in this weblog entry about a majority of military recruits being Muslim in 2015, 20 percent of the population being Muslim in 2020, and the possibility of majority of it being Muslim in 2050) but it does unprecedentedly draw out the implications of these facts:
Looking at the statistics it becomes perfectly clear that Russian Muslims are going to play an important role in the future. This will not affect domestic policy only, but will also have an effect on foreign policy.
Disappointingly, the ministry report does not then speculate about the nature of that impact, much less its implications for Finland.